"I respectfully suggest that we may be looking at a crisis here"
But is there a nationwide crisis? I've pointed out the slow growth among the states in elementary school achievement (even with all the trickery -- and the picture is far bleaker in middle and high school) and I've demonstrated the abysmal absolute numbers. You can also talk about America's relatively poor performance in international assessments. But how do you explain rosy headlines like "Young students post solid gains in federal tests," or "School achievement gap is narrowing" that followed the July release of the long-term National Assessment for Educational Progress results? After all, I hold up the NAEP as perhaps the most reliable assessment out there.An education task force established by the [Center for American Progress and Institute for America's Future] noted the following:
"Young low-income and minority children are more likely to start school without having gained important school readiness skills, such as recognizing letters and counting. ... By the fourth grade, low-income students read about three grade levels behind nonpoor students. Across the nation, only 15 percent of low-income fourth graders achieved proficiency in reading in 2003, compared to 41 percent of nonpoor students."
How's that for a disturbing passage? Not only is the picture horribly bleak for low-income and minority kids, but we find that only 41 percent of nonpoor fourth graders can read proficiently.
I respectfully suggest that we may be looking at a crisis here.
The answer lies behind the headlines. The long-term NAEP results, which have given equivalent, comparable tests to students over the past thirty years, showed that in reading 9-year-olds gained 11 scale score points (on a scale of 0-500) over their 1971 counterparts, 13-year-olds gained 4 points and 17-year-olds stayed exactly even.
Keep in mind that 1971 was 34 years ago. Nixon was president. The USSR was still going strong. Neil Armstrong had landed on the moon a mere 2 years earlier. 17-year-olds -- 11th graders -- are reading at the same level as they were 34 years ago. The biggest gainers have inched up 11 points.
I respectfully suggest that we may be looking at a crisis here.
But comparisons with 1971 aren't very useful except for to induce some gasps. It's better to look at 1994, since when we've seen 9-year-old increases of 8 points, 13-year-old losses of 1 point and 17-year-old losses of 3 points. But what does that mean? It's not exactly clear what the scale scores translate to in terms of number of questions answered correctly, partially because the NAEP tests involve both multiple-choice and constructed-response questions. I'm going to call the NCES tomorrow to request data on the conversion scale. All we can say at this point is that on a scale of 0-500, 10 points isn't enormous. It's certainly less than you'd expect or like to see over the course of many, many years.
A more interesting comparison can be made with regards to performance levels, which the test creators have linked to certain degrees of knowledge. 9-year-olds fall into the following three categories:
LEVEL 250: Interrelate Ideas and Make Generalizations
LEVEL 200: Demonstrate Partially Developed Skills and Understanding
LEVEL 150: Carry Out Simple, Discrete Reading Tasks
In 1994, 92% of 9-year-olds were at level 150 or above, 63% at 200 or above and 17% at 250 or above. In 2004, the percentages were 96, 70 and 20.
So now we come to it, through the absolute analysis: Nearly a third of 9-year-olds, 4th graders, can't demonstrate partially developed reading skills, and the overwhelming majority can't interrelate ideas and make generalizations. Only 61% of current 13-year-olds can do the latter!
By any measure, student achievement in America has crept forward over the past decade. The problem is, the gulf that remains -- after 34 years! -- could dwarf the Grand Canyon. The media can spin it however it likes, but drilling down through the national data leads to the same conclusion as cracking open the state data:
I respectfully suggest that we may be looking at a crisis here.
This entry was posted
on Monday, August 29, 2005 at 6:44 PM.
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